Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
