A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
